Newcastle (AW)
Monday, 13 April 2026 · 5f · Standard · flat · Class Class 5 · £3,978
Race Assessment
Competitive Class 5 handicap sprint with several course winners and form horses. Paul Midgley has three runners including course specialists Hover On The Wind and Herakles. The field is well balanced with most rated 58-70.
Key Factors
- •Course form crucial - several have won here before
- •Paul Midgley stable strength with three runners
- •Weight drops and recent form improvement
- •Jockey/trainer combinations showing positive statistics
Going
Standard artificial surface should suit most, with course specialists holding an edge. No significant going-related advantages expected.
Pace
Likely moderate early pace given the sprint distance. Blue Force from draw 1 and Herakles from draw 2 may look to lead, setting up for a strong finish from those that can quicken.
Recommendations (2)
Blue Force
win8/10Confidence: 7/10Outstanding course and distance specialist (25% strike rate at 5f, A/E 2.04) returning to form with solid third at Wolverhampton. Two wins at this track, beneficial draw position, and 1lb weight drop. Despite poor trainer recent form, the horse's individual track/distance record is compelling at 5.5.
Suggested stake: 2% of bank
Herakles
eachway7/10Confidence: 7/10Course specialist with three wins here and consistent recent form. Part of strong Midgley stable team and has dropped 1lb in weights. At 7.5 offers value each-way with solid place prospects given his course record and recent consistency.
Suggested stake: 1.5% of bank
Runner Analysis
Hover On The Wind
Course winner who returned to form when third at Southwell last time, suffering interference. Races off same mark as when winning here and represents strong Midgley stable.
- + Course winner over C&D
- + Returned to form last start
- + Racing off winning mark
- - Recent inconsistency
- - Trainer/jockey stats below average
Dc Cogent
Course winner with solid recent efforts over 6f. Strong trainer-jockey combination showing 15% strike rate and profit. Distance drop back to 5f could suit.
- + Course winner
- + Strong trainer-jockey combo stats
- + Solid recent form
- - Only one career win
- - Dropping back in distance
Blue Force
Course specialist with excellent distance record (25% strike rate, A/E 2.04). Returning to form with third at Wolverhampton, now 1lb lower. Low draw advantage.
- + Outstanding distance record
- + Two wins at this track
- + Returning to form
- + 1lb drop in weights
- - Trainer 0 from 11 recently
- - Jockey stats poor
Darlo Pride
Returned to form with close third at Southwell off this mark. Excellent trainer-jockey combination (14% strike rate, A/E 1.24, +£70 profit). High draw could be disadvantage.
- + Strong recent form return
- + Excellent trainer-jockey stats
- + Slipped in weights
- - High draw position
- - 34 days off
Herakles
Course specialist with three C&D wins. Good recent form at Southwell and dropped 1lb. Strong trainer-jockey combination and represents the in-form Midgley stable.
- + Three course wins
- + Recent solid form
- + Weight drop
- + Strong stable representation
- - Draw 2 in sprint
- - Trainer stats moderate
Rock Of England
Needs to improve on last run but excellent trainer-jockey statistics (19% strike rate, A/E 1.52, +£34 profit). Wide draw is concerning for sprint.
- + Outstanding trainer-jockey combo
- + Returning to preferred distance
- - Poor last run
- - Wide draw
- - Inconsistent form
Ganesha
Course runner-up twice but form has declined and 66-day break raises fitness concerns. Needs significant improvement from recent efforts.
- + Course form
- + Good distance record
- - Long layoff
- - Form decline
- - Poor trainer stats with 5yos
Brian The Snail
12-year-old veteran with poor recent form. Switching back to 5f may help but age and form trend are concerning.
- + Good distance record historically
- + Distance switch
- - Advanced age
- - Poor recent form
- - Trainer 0 from 13
Zuffolo
Course winner but 137-day break and poor end to last season raise concerns. Needs to prove fitness after long absence.
- + Course winner with visor
- + Good distance record
- - Very long layoff
- - Poor end to last season
- - Trainer 0 from 12
Bonito Cavalo
Much reduced mark after wind operation but stepping up in class. Trainer-jockey combination shows promise but form trend concerning.
- + Low weight allowance
- + Trainer-jockey stats positive
- - Stepping up in class
- - Recent poor form
- - Wind operation
No Value
Likely contender but odds of 5.0 fairly reflect his chances despite course form
Strong trainer-jockey combo but market has this factored at 5.0
Good form return but 4.33 offers no edge for his chances
Avoid
137-day layoff with poor end to last season and trainer 0 from 12 - fitness major concern
12-year-old with declining form trend and trainer completely out of form
Runners (10)
| Pos | Draw | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | OR | Weight | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 1 | Blue Force | Cam Hardie | Antony Brittain | 64 | 129lbs | 5.5 | 8/10 |
| - | 2 | Herakles | Mark Winn | Paul Midgley | 62 | 127lbs | 7.5 | 7/10 |
| - | 3 | Dc Cogent | Paul Mulrennan | Bryan Smart | 67 | 132lbs | 5.0 | 5/10 |
| - | 4 | Zuffolo | Connor Beasley | Michael Dods | 58 | 123lbs | 26.0 | 4/10 |
| - | 5 | Bonito Cavalo | Lauren Young(5) | Jim Goldie | 52 | 117lbs | 15.0 | 4/10 |
| - | 6 | Hover On The Wind | Barry McHugh | Paul Midgley | 70 | 135lbs | 5.0 | 6/10 |
| - | 7 | Brian The Snail | William Pyle(3) | Patrick Morris | 60 | 125lbs | 19.0 | 4/10 |
| - | 8 | Ganesha | Rowan Scott | Phillip Makin | 62 | 127lbs | 13.0 | 4/10 |
| - | 9 | Darlo Pride | Sean Kirrane | Michael Dods | 63 | 128lbs | 4.3 | 6/10 |
| - | 10 | Rock Of England | Jason Hart | Paul Midgley | 62 | 127lbs | 15.0 | 6/10 |