Newcastle (AW)
Monday, 13 April 2026 · 6f · Standard · flat · Class Class 3 · £7,956
Race Assessment
Competitive 6f handicap with several in-form sprinters. Grant Wood looks the horse to beat after two course wins this season, though he faces a 4lb rise. The Caltonian has strong course form and returns from a break, while Wicket Keeper showed promise on stable debut. Several others have claims in an open contest.
Key Factors
- •Course form
- •Recent form
- •Weight rises
- •Equipment changes
- •Returns from breaks
Going
Standard all-weather conditions should suit most, though some have shown preferences for turf
Pace
Likely to be a genuine pace with several hold-up horses. Draw 1 (Grant Wood) could be disadvantaged if pace is strong, while those drawn wider may get better cover.
Recommendations (1)
The Caltonian
eachway7/10Confidence: 6/10Course winner in January returning to optimal 6f trip after disappointing 5f effort. Trainer-jockey combination highly profitable (A/E 4.13) and horse has 18% strike rate over 6f. Current odds of 9.0 offer value against fair odds estimate of 7.5.
Suggested stake: 1.2% of bank
Runner Analysis
Cajetan
First-time blinkers applied but recent form is poor with string of zeros. Trainer/jockey combo has negative stats and 5lb drop may not be enough to overcome current struggles.
- + First-time blinkers
- + 5lb drop in weights
- - Poor recent form
- - Trainer/jockey combination statistics
- - Lacks consistency
Toyotomi
Long layoff of 183 days after gelding operation is concerning. Showed ability in France but unproven at this distance in UK conditions. Trainer-jockey combo reliable but horse needs to prove fitness.
- + Well-handicapped on French form
- + Gelding operation may help
- + Good trainer-jockey partnership
- - Long absence
- - Unproven at distance in UK
- - Fitness question
Albasheer
Showed improvement second run back from break at course and distance. Trainer has excellent 19% strike rate at Newcastle and strong partnership with Hollie Doyle. Well-positioned if taking another step forward.
- + Improving after break
- + Excellent trainer course record
- + Strong trainer-jockey combination
- - Blinkers suggest attitude issues
- - Age concerns at 8yo
- - Needs to find more improvement
Strike Red
Class horse dropping down in grade but long absence is negative for a trainer/horse combination that typically needs races. Second in Stewards' Cup shows ability but timing may be wrong.
- + Class dropper
- + Proven at high level
- + Good course jockey record
- - Long layoff
- - Usually needs a run
- - Age concerns
Grant Wood
Course specialist with two wins here this season. 4lb rise is manageable and trainer-jockey combination profitable. Recent fourth at Wolverhampton better than it looks as form has worked out well.
- + Course specialist
- + Recent course wins
- + Profitable trainer-jockey combo
- + Form working out
- - 4lb weight rise
- - Draw 1 may be disadvantageous
- - Slight step up in grade
William Dewhirst
Was in good form last AW season but long absence followed by disappointing return suggests he needs more time to find his form. May need further weight reductions.
- + Trainer excellent at course
- + Good trainer-jockey partnership
- - Poor return from long break
- - Needs time to find form
- - Low topspeed figure
The Caltonian
Course winner in January who ran poorly over 5f last time but that trip was too short. Returns to optimum distance with good course record and trainer-jockey combo shows promise.
- + Course winner this year
- + Better over 6f than 5f
- + Trainer-jockey combo profitable
- + Good distance record
- - Break since last run
- - Poor last effort
- - Draw could be better
Wicket Keeper
Showed promise on stable debut despite being 33-1. Won twice on turf for previous trainer and ran well despite wide draw last time. Could improve for the experience.
- + Promising stable debut
- + Previous turf wins
- + Ran well from wide draw
- + Unexposed for current yard
- - Poor jockey/trainer statistics
- - Switching surfaces
- - New stable
Paddy's Day
Course specialist with six 5f wins here but rarely seen over 6f. First-time tongue-tie suggests problems but distance stretch is the main concern despite excellent course record.
- + Excellent course record
- + First-time tongue-tie
- + Low weight rise
- - Distance question
- - Rarely successful over 6f
- - Equipment change suggests issues
Evening Saigon
Unexposed 4yo with strong trainer distance record (25% strike rate). Won well at Chelmsford over 6f and excuse for heavy ground defeat. Long break is concern but has potential to improve.
- + Unexposed 4yo
- + Excellent trainer distance record
- + Won well last time on suitable ground
- + Room for improvement
- - Long absence
- - Fitness after break
- - Relatively lightly raced
No Value
Course specialist and likely winner but odds of 5.0 fairly reflect his strong claims
Improving and well-placed but odds of 6.5 offer no edge for his realistic winning chance
Interesting unexposed type but long absence and odds of 7.0 leave no value margin
Avoid
183-day layoff after gelding operation with unproven distance form in UK conditions makes this a fitness risk
Poor return from very long break suggests needs more time to find form, with low topspeed figure concerning
Runners (10)
| Pos | Draw | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | OR | Weight | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 1 | Grant Wood | Jason Hart | Paul Midgley | 84 | 124lbs | 5.0 | 7/10 |
| - | 2 | Wicket Keeper | Cam Hardie | Antony Brittain | 90 | 130lbs | 5.5 | 5/10 |
| - | 3 | William Dewhirst | Andrew Mullen | Ben Haslam | 79 | 119lbs | 29.0 | 2/10 |
| - | 4 | Toyotomi | Daniel Tudhope | David O'Meara | 95 | 135lbs | 9.0 | 4/10 |
| - | 5 | The Caltonian | Kieran O'Neill | Linda Perratt | 93 | 133lbs | 9.0 | 7/10 |
| - | 6 | Evening Saigon | Callum Rodriguez | Hamad Al Jehani | 89 | 129lbs | 7.0 | 6/10 |
| - | 7 | Albasheer | Hollie Doyle | Archie Watson | 95 | 135lbs | 6.5 | 6/10 |
| - | 8 | Cajetan | James Sullivan | Ruth Carr | 77 | 117lbs | 26.0 | 3/10 |
| - | 9 | Strike Red | Billy Garritty | Richard & Peter Fahey | 86 | 126lbs | 7.5 | 4/10 |
| - | 10 | Paddy's Day | Alex Jary(3) | Nigel Tinkler | 89 | 129lbs | 6.5 | 5/10 |