Leicester

Monday, 13 April 2026 · 6f · Good To Firm · flat · Class Class 5 · £3,664

upcomingLast analysed: 12/04/2026, 21:46:08

Race Assessment

Competitive Class 5 handicap sprint with several horses showing recent form on all-weather tracks. The field appears evenly matched with most runners having legitimate claims.

Key Factors

  • Recent all-weather form translating to turf
  • First-time headgear changes on multiple runners
  • Course specialists and draw bias potential
  • Trainer/jockey combinations with positive statistics

Going

Good to firm conditions should suit the speedier types, though a couple of runners would prefer softer ground for their stamina to tell

Pace

Likely to be a strong pace with Em Four and potentially Beyond Borders looking to lead, which should set up the race for closers

Recommendations (1)

Beyond Borders

eachway8/10Confidence: 6/10

Outstanding trainer/jockey combination (Frost/Stammers) showing 22% strike rate with A/E of 1.98 and +£31 profit. Horse has excellent 6f record (23% win rate) and is back to the mark he won off last summer. The 189-day break is a concern but this trainer/jockey pairing excels together and the 11.0 odds significantly underestimate the chances.

Suggested stake: 2% of bank

Runner Analysis

Em Four

6/10Conf: 7/10

Consistent all-weather performer with two wins this year who handles undulating tracks well. Last run can be upgraded as he helped set up the race for others at Kempton.

Fair odds: 4.5
Market: 5.5
Edge: 22%
Strengths
  • + Course experience at undulating tracks
  • + Recent winning form
  • + Excellent record at 6f distance (25% strike rate)
Concerns
  • - Trainer in poor form recently
  • - May sacrifice own chances by leading

Tenbob Tommy

4/10Conf: 5/10

Won well on his sprint debut at Polytrack but faces much stiffer test back in handicap company off career-high mark after 91-day break.

Fair odds: 4.5
Market: 4.3
Edge: -4%
Strengths
  • + Recent sprint win
  • + Trainer/jockey poor combination but horse won despite it
  • + Perfect 6f record (1 from 1)
Concerns
  • - Long layoff without trials
  • - Career-high rating
  • - Poor trainer/jockey combination stats

Beyond Borders

8/10Conf: 6/10

Inconsistent type returning from long break but trainer/jockey combination shows excellent profit and A/E ratio. Good course record at this distance.

Fair odds: 8.0
Market: 11.0
Edge: 38%
Strengths
  • + Excellent trainer/jockey combination (22% strike rate, +£31 P/L)
  • + Strong 6f record (23% strike rate)
  • + Back to winning mark
Concerns
  • - Very long layoff (189 days)
  • - Wildly inconsistent form
  • - Poor recent trainer results with 5yos

Shazani

5/10Conf: 6/10

Stopped quickly at Doncaster but first-time blinkers could help. Trainer has excellent 6f record with positive profit, though stable quiet this season.

Fair odds: 6.5
Market: 6.0
Edge: -8%
Strengths
  • + First-time blinkers
  • + Trainer excellent at 6f (10% strike rate, +£15.81 P/L)
  • + Recent run can be excused
Concerns
  • - Stopped quickly last time
  • - Prefers softer ground
  • - Stable not firing yet this season

Invincible Speed

4/10Conf: 4/10

All-weather specialist with poor turf record (0-6) but trainer/jockey combination shows promise. Recently behind Em Four in similar contest.

Fair odds: 7.5
Market: 6.5
Edge: -13%
Strengths
  • + Good recent form behind Em Four
  • + Strong trainer/jockey combination (24% strike rate)
  • + Decent distance record
Concerns
  • - Poor turf record (0-6)
  • - Trainer poor at this course
  • - All wins on artificial surfaces

Rogue Allegiance

4/10Conf: 3/10

First run for new trainer Jack Jones after struggling badly last year. Jockey has good course record but horse's form suggests he needs to improve significantly.

Fair odds: 9.0
Market: 8.0
Edge: -11%
Strengths
  • + Good jockey course record
  • + New trainer might help
  • + Trainer/jockey combination working well
Concerns
  • - Struggled badly in 2025
  • - Hood tried before without success
  • - Inclined to pull hard

The Coffee Pod

4/10Conf: 2/10

Long absence since blood vessel issues but first-time hood and fresh approach might help. Stiff 6f is concern as better over 5f.

Fair odds: 20.0
Market: 19.0
Edge: -5%
Strengths
  • + Fresh after long break
  • + First-time hood
  • + Trainer positive at 6f
Concerns
  • - Two blood vessel incidents
  • - Better over 5f than 6f
  • - Very long layoff (223 days)

Magic Music

4/10Conf: 2/10

Weak form overall but excellent trainer/jockey combination statistics suggest some potential improvement. Needs to have progressed significantly during break.

Fair odds: 20.0
Market: 19.0
Edge: -5%
Strengths
  • + Outstanding trainer/jockey combination (20% strike rate, A/E 2.20)
  • + Good owner/trainer record
  • + Distance debut
Concerns
  • - Weak maiden form
  • - Very long break
  • - No wins at this distance

Al Hofzan

4/10Conf: 4/10

Improved since cheekpieces fitted but turf debut at new distance creates uncertainty. Apprentice jockey has limited sample size but decent strike rate at 6f.

Fair odds: 7.0
Market: 6.0
Edge: -14%
Strengths
  • + Improved since cheekpieces added
  • + Aggressive riding style suits
  • + Jockey has good 6f record (small sample)
Concerns
  • - Turf debut
  • - Sprint debut
  • - Owner/trainer combination winless

No Value

Em Four

Likely to be competitive with good course/distance record but odds of 5.5 fairly reflect his chances

Avoid

Invincible Speed

Poor turf record (0-6) with all wins coming on all-weather surfaces - wrong conditions

Runners (9)

PosDrawHorseJockeyTrainerORWeightOddsValue
-1Beyond BordersOliver StammersKevin Frost73134lbs11.08/10
-2The Coffee PodLewis EdmundsWilliam Muir & Chris Grassick69130lbs19.04/10
-3Tenbob TommyCharles BishopSheena West74135lbs4.34/10
-4Em FourSaffie OsborneJamie Osborne74135lbs5.56/10
-5Rogue AllegianceHector CrouchJack Jones71132lbs8.04/10
-6Magic MusicClifford LeeSteph Hollinshead67128lbs19.04/10
-7Al HofzanHarry Vigors(7)Georgina Nicholls66127lbs6.04/10
-8Invincible SpeedPaddy BradleyMark Loughnane72133lbs6.54/10
-9ShazaniAlistair RawlinsonRoy Bowring73134lbs6.05/10