Musselburgh

Sunday, 12 April 2026 · 1m · Good · flat · Class Class 4 · £12,885

completedLast analysed: 12/04/2026, 20:38:38

Race Assessment

A competitive Class 4 handicap with several horses returning from winter breaks. The form centres around recent course winner Bellarchi and several promising types making seasonal debuts after long layoffs.

Key Factors

  • Many horses returning from significant layoffs (150+ days)
  • Course form advantage to Bellarchi and Jannas Journey
  • Class drops for several runners
  • Draw bias potentially favours low numbers at Musselburgh

Going

Good ground should suit most, though some may prefer softer conditions based on their best form

Pace

Likely moderate early pace with most preferring to be held up, which could favour those with tactical speed

Recommendations (1)

Asteverdi

win7/10Confidence: 7/10

Running 2lb below last winning mark for new connections with Cieren Fallon taking the ride. James Owen can ready them fresh and this looks a good opportunity at 5.5.

Suggested stake: 2.0% of bank

Runner Analysis

Applesandpears

0/10Conf: 0/10

NON-RUNNER - Progressive filly who won her last two starts but would need the 1m trip to suit on handicap debut.

Fair odds: 0.0
Market: 0.0
Strengths
  • + Progressive profile
  • + Won last two starts
Concerns
  • - Non-runner
  • - Handicap debut

Perfect Part

6/10Conf: 5/10

Winless in 13 attempts since debut success but showed encouraging signs when fourth in competitive Spring Mile at Doncaster last time. Low draw is a positive.

Fair odds: 8.0
Market: 7.0
Edge: -13%
Strengths
  • + Good recent run at Doncaster
  • + Low draw advantage
  • + Form boost from Doncaster race
Concerns
  • - 0-13 since debut win
  • - Trainer out of form

Jannas Journey

4/10Conf: 3/10

Seven-time winner last season including over 7f at this course, but wide draw and poor recent effort are concerns. May have needed the run last time.

Fair odds: 25.0
Market: 29.0
Edge: 16%
Strengths
  • + Course winner
  • + Prolific last season
Concerns
  • - Wide draw
  • - Poor recent form
  • - Trainer struggling

Geo

3/10Conf: 2/10

Changed stables after moderate form for previous trainer. Only one win from 12 starts and returning after six months off makes her hard to fancy.

Fair odds: 30.0
Market: 34.0
Edge: 13%
Strengths
  • + Stable debut
  • + Low weight
Concerns
  • - Long layoff
  • - Poor overall record
  • - New connections

Epidavros

4/10Conf: 3/10

Back to last winning mark but winless in 13 attempts since September 2024. Long absence and trainer form are negatives.

Fair odds: 14.0
Market: 12.0
Edge: -14%
Strengths
  • + Back to winning mark
  • + Previous 1m form
Concerns
  • - Winless in 13 runs
  • - 194 days off
  • - Trainer out of form

Second Fiddle

3/10Conf: 2/10

Prolific on AW with six wins last season but disappointing in both turf returns this year. Tongue tie is a positive equipment change.

Fair odds: 32.0
Market: 34.0
Edge: 6%
Strengths
  • + Tongue tie fitted
  • + Good AW record
Concerns
  • - Poor turf form
  • - Three months off
  • - Apprentice jockey

Dunkeld Dreamer

6/10Conf: 6/10

Consistent in nurseries last year but 13lb higher than last win. Returning after 162 days off for in-form stable makes her interesting at the weights.

Fair odds: 7.5
Market: 8.5
Edge: 13%
Strengths
  • + Low weight allowance
  • + Consistent profile
  • + Step up in trip may suit
Concerns
  • - Much higher mark than last win
  • - Long layoff

Asteverdi

7/10Conf: 7/10

Lightly raced but 2lb below last winning mark. New trainer James Owen and can go well fresh. Cieren Fallon booking is a positive signal.

Fair odds: 5.0
Market: 5.5
Edge: 10%
Strengths
  • + Below last winning mark
  • + Good jockey booking
  • + Can go well fresh
  • + New stable
Concerns
  • - 186 days off
  • - Lightly raced

Bellarchi

5/10Conf: 8/10

Recent course and distance winner who handles the good ground. Despite 3lb penalty, looks the one to beat from ideal draw in stall one.

Fair odds: 5.8
Market: 6.0
Edge: 3%
Strengths
  • + Recent C&D winner
  • + Proven on good ground
  • + Low draw
  • + In form
Concerns
  • - 3lb penalty
  • - May have had soft race last time

Callianassa

4/10Conf: 3/10

AW specialist who is 0-9 on turf. Recent run was disappointing and hard to fancy despite returning to 1m trip.

Fair odds: 10.0
Market: 8.5
Edge: -15%
Strengths
  • + Returning to 1m
  • + Recent run
Concerns
  • - 0-9 on turf
  • - AW specialist
  • - Trainer struggling

Ice Sovereigns

6/10Conf: 5/10

Showed ability in nurseries but was outclassed in Group 2 company last time. Dropping back in class after long break could see improvement.

Fair odds: 11.0
Market: 10.0
Edge: -9%
Strengths
  • + Class drop
  • + Previous course form
  • + Long break may help
Concerns
  • - Last run was very poor
  • - 198 days off

Samra Green

7/10Conf: 6/10

Impressive on debut but struggled in Group 2 company. Irish Guineas entry suggests connections rate her highly and this is much easier.

Fair odds: 4.8
Market: 5.5
Edge: 15%
Strengths
  • + Impressive debut win
  • + Class drop
  • + Irish Guineas entry
  • + Burke stable
Concerns
  • - Only two career runs
  • - 198 days off

No Value

Bellarchi

Most likely winner but odds of 6.0 accurately reflect his chance from this 3lb higher mark

Samra Green

Strong contender dropping in class but odds of 5.5 offer little margin for error after long layoff

Avoid

Callianassa

AW specialist with 0-9 turf record - wrong surface despite returning to optimal trip

Runners (12)

PosDrawHorseJockeyTrainerORWeightOddsValue
11Bellarchi (IRE)Oliver StammersGrant Tuer87144lbs6.0-
62Perfect Part (IRE)Zak Wheatley(3)Brian Ellison87144lbs7.0-
-3ApplesandpearsNON-RUNNEREdward Bethell84126lbs-0/10
74Callianassa (IRE)Connor BeasleyBrian Ellison83140lbs8.5-
35Asteverdi (GB)Cieren FallonJames Owen78135lbs5.5-
116Ice Sovereigns (IRE)Callum ShepherdCharlie Johnston85127lbs10.0-
27Samra Green (IRE)Sam JamesK R Burke84126lbs5.5-
48Epidavros (IRE)Jason HartKatie Scott71128lbs12.0-
59Dunkeld Dreamer (IRE)Pierre-Louis JaminK R Burke77119lbs8.5-
1010Second Fiddle (IRE)Cara Tuke(7)Iain Jardine69126lbs34.0-
911Jannas Journey (IRE)Cam HardieJim Goldie83140lbs29.0-
812Geo (IRE)Paul MulrennanJim Goldie69126lbs34.0-